Sheep.AI Advisory LLP — Credit Risk Intelligence
How Fuel Disruptions Translate into
Instant Credit Risk.
Physical supply shocks no longer take months to show up in loan books. Through digital payments data, stress is visible within days — not at the next EMI default.
The Client Problem
One cascade, four measurable stages
When fuel costs surge, the cascade from supply shock to liquidity breakdown is immediate — and it leaves a trail across four dimensions a lender can actually see.
Supply Shock
10% → 20%+
of operating cost
LPG shortages and price spikes push fuel from a background cost to the single line item that decides whether the stove stays on.
Business Disruption
Fewer hours
cooking & serving
Reduced cooking hours, compressed menus, and customers who quietly go elsewhere.
QR Revenue Drop
30–60%
fall in daily collections
Daily QR collections fall and the share of failed or aborted transactions climbs — the first hard evidence in the data.
Liquidity Breakdown
Sweeps fail
working capital diverted
Working capital is diverted to keep the gas flowing, and daily loan-sweep failures begin.
Our Solution
Real-time delinquency detection, read straight off QR cash flows
The core of our Early Warning System is a simple, powerful score that weighs live QR throughput against the loan obligation it needs to cover — a real-time liquidity health signal, not a lagging default flag.
- Score > 1.5 — Healthy,strong cash-flow buffer
- 1.0 – 1.5 — Monitor (SMA-0),early stress visible
- Score < 1.0 — High Risk,cash flow below obligations
Risk Score Formula
Risk Score = Current 7-Day QR Throughput ÷ Average Weekly EMI
Monitor · SMA-0
Early stress visible
1.30
Drag the slider to see how the score reclassifies a borrower — this is the same read lenders get, live, every day.
What The System Watches
Four signals fire before a single EMI is missed
Together, they compress detection from a 90-day lag to a 24–72 hour window.
Throughput Drop
40%
decline, 3-day average
Real-time signature of a demand or supply shock.
Settlement Failures
≥2
failed sweeps in 7 days
An immediate marker of acute liquidity stress.
QR Decline Rate Spike
15%+
failed transactions
A behavioural distress signal from the merchant side.
Business Pattern Change
↓ hrs / ↓ ticket
operating pattern
Shorter hours and smaller tickets flag deterioration early.
The Shift
From lagging indicator to live signal
90
days — old detection window
Risk is detected only at EMI default. The lender responds after the damage is already done.
24–72
hours — new QR EWS window
Risk is detected at cash-flow disruption. The lender intervenes before default.
Max QR revenue drop observed in the field: 60%
Risk is no longer detected at default.
It's detected at disruption.
QR data compresses delinquency detection from a 90-day lag to a 24–72 hour window. Share this with your credit risk team.
Talk to our risk teamSheep.AI Advisory LLP